Faculty Publications (BETA) – Search #2


Title: test working paper
Author(s): yeon-koo che; eric vlach
Date: May 2018
Abstract

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Title: Perinatal Health Among 1 Million American-Born Chinese
Author(s): Douglas V. Almond; Yi Cheng
Date: December 2016
Abstract

Son preference is well documented in many Asian counties. Sex selection generates sex ratios (# of males/# of females) above the biologically normal ratio of around 1.05 at birth. For China, Chen, Li, and Meng [2013] argue that availability of prenatal sex determination through ultrasound lead to a 40-50% increase in the sex imbalance during the 1980s. Son preference manifests in sibling sex composition, where the sex ratio of firstborn children is relatively normal but rises at higher birth orders in the absence of a previous son [Yi et al., 1993]. Because official birth certificate and hospital discharge microdata are not publicly available for China, most studies analyze population census data. This tends to focus empirical work on the sex imbalance itself. A key unanswered question is the effect of gender preference on “survivors”. An exception is Li and Wu [2011], who use the China Health and Nutrition Survey to show that mother’s nutrition may deteriorate postpartum upon having a daughter relative to a son. Gender preference aside, perinatal health has a profound impact on population health. The WHO defines the perinatal period as running from 22 weeks gestation to 7 days after birth. Over half of infant deaths occur within first 7 days of life. The death rate for children under age one is more than 13 times higher than the death rate for children age 15 to 19, the group with the next highest rate. Moreover, the fetal origins hypothesis suggests that small gaps in perinatal health can map to large later-life gaps. In the absence of data for China, we explore the perinatal health of American-born Chinese (1.2% of US population).

Publisher: Columbia
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Fields: microeconomics, economic theory
Title: Monetary Policy Rules in a Non-Rational World: A Macroeconomic Experiment
Author(s): Felix Mauersberger
Date: July 2016
Abstract

I introduce a new learning-to-forecast experimental design, where subjects in a virtual New-Keynesian macroeconomy based on Woodford (2013) need to forecast individual instead of aggregate outcomes. This approach is motivated by the critique of Preston (2005) and Woodford (2013) that substituting arbitrary forms of expectations into the reduced-form New-Keynesian model (consisting of the “DIS” equation, the “Phillips curve” and the “Taylor” rule) is inconsistent with its microfoundations. Using this design, I analyze the impact of different interest rate rules on expectation formation and expectation-driven fluctuations. Even if the Taylor principle is fulfilled, instead of quickly converging to the REE, the experimental economy exhibits persistent purely expectation-driven fluctuations not necessarily around the REE. Only a particularly aggressive monetary authority achieves the elimination of these fluctuations and quick convergence to the REE. To explain the aggregate behavior in the experiment, I develop a “noisy” adaptive learning approach, introducing endogenous shocks into a simple adaptive learning model. However, I find that for some monetary policy regimes a reinforcement learning model, applied to different forecasting rules, provides a better fit to the data.

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Title: Democracy for Polarized Committees: The Tale of Blotto’s Lieutenants
Author(s): Alessandra M. Casella; Jean-François Laslier; Antonin Macé
Date: April 2016
Abstract

In polarized committees, majority voting disenfranchises the minority. Allowing voters to spend freely a fixed budget of votes over multiple issues restores some minority power. However, it also creates a complex strategic scenario: a hide-and-seek game between majority and minority voters that corresponds to a decentralized version of the Colonel Blotto game. We offer theoretical results and bring the game to the laboratory. The minority wins as frequently as theory predicts, despite subjects deviating from equilibrium strategies. Because subjects understand the logic of the game — minority voters must concentrate votes unpredictably — the exact choices are of secondary importance.

Publisher: Columbia
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Title: Identifying Effects of Multivalued Treatments
Author(s): Sobkae Lee; Bernard Salanie
Date: November 2015
Abstract

Multivalued treatment models have only been studied so far under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, or more recently unordered monotonicity. We show how marginal treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models. Our results rely on two main assumptions: treatment assignment must be a measurable function of threshold-crossing rules; and enough continuous instruments must be available. On the other hand, we do not require any kind of monotonicity condition. We illustrate our approach on several commonly used models; and we also discuss the identification power of discrete instruments.

Publisher: Columbia
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1022 International Affairs Building (IAB)

Mail Code 3308

420 West 118th Street

New York, NY 10027

Ph: (212) 854-3680
Fax: (212) 854-0749
Business Hours:
Mon–Fri, 9:00 a.m.–5:00 p.m.